As the Conservative party leadership contest headlines summer’22 ahead of a new PM expected to be appointed in September and despite some positive recent developments in the economy, inflation continues to hit hard and with a possible recession around the corner, we look at the economy and labour market performance over the first half of the year.
Check out 2022 Quarter 2 Highlights Presentation
Use the dashboard to explore the latest labour market developments. Should be read with the LMI during COVID-19 guidance.
In the Spotlight: BCP and Dorset Councils – local context
Dorset LEP has developed labour market and economic indicators dashboards for BCP and Dorset Council to support the local authorities in their UK Shared Prosperity Fund submissions. Data indicates some challenges of availability of high-quality jobs and sector diversity, particularly in Dorset Council area, as well as significant labour force challenges linked to ageing population.
Latest Census statistics from 2021 show that population growth in BCP has exceeded projections and has reached 400,000 a year earlier. On the contrary, Dorset Council population has slightly declined. With 30% of its residents in retirement age, compared to an England average of 18%, fewer working age people (208,500; 54% vs 62% nationally), and higher proportions nearing retirement (85,000 aged 50-64; 41% of working aged people), Dorset is among the most aged local authority areas in the UK with serious dependency and workforce issues deepening.
Chart of the Quarter: Productivity in Dorset
Recently released figures show that Dorset’s economy was worth an estimated 18.2 billion in 2020, marking a 4% decline on the previous year (with 3% national decline reference). Interestingly, productivity per hour worked increased by 3% in Dorset, which compared to 2% increase nationally. This means the gap from national productivity levels which was an estimated £3 billion in 2019, narrowed down to £2.5 billion in 2020.
Productivity by industry
Most sectors grew between 2010 and 2019 with ICT, Health, Real Estate and Professional services seeing the largest growth and increasing by more than 40%.
The pandemic however affected most sectors of the economy in 2020, and growth was only recorded in the essential areas of healthcare, education, public services and ICT, while the largest decline of 39% was recorded in tourism and hospitality, as the sector remained largely closed over most of the year.
Worth 3.6 billion, ‘real estate’ was the most productive sector, followed by ‘healthcare’, ‘retail’, ‘financial services and ‘manufacturing’ - all contributing over £1.7 billion in 2020.
Labour demand breaking records, no signs of slowing down yet in Dorset
The half-yearly aggregate vacancies in Dorset have been on the rise over the past two years. Despite national indicators showing an expected slowdown of demand, there are no signs of decline noted in Dorset.
The first half of 2022 saw a new high of 54,700 vacancies advertised across the county - 48% higher than last year and more than double those from 2020.
Vacancy growth continued across sectors in Dorset.
The largest growth was recorded in tourism and hospitality (‘accommodation and food services’) where there were 170% more vacancies in 2022 than in the previous year, while ‘education’ saw a 110% increase.
Across sectors, vacancies in 2022 were at least a quarter higher, but there was some decline in the proportion of high skilled roles in the labour market with care service roles marking a 10-year increase of over 540% and elementary roles of over 400%, indicating acute recruitment challenges.
As report findings of an unprecedented NHS staffing crisis emerged, estimating that England is now short of 12,000 hospital doctors and more than 50,000 nurses and midwives, ‘healthcare occupations’ hit an all-time high and remained the most in demand occupations in Dorset having seen a 30% increase on the previous year and representing a fifth of all vacancies locally.
Top employers and job creation in Dorset
The employers topping the charts in terms of the number of vacancies advertised were from a variety of sectors including healthcare (NHS and care firms), local government (BCP and Dorset Councils), finance (JP Morgan and LV=), tourism and hospitality (Bourne Leisure, Whitbread, Hall& Woodhouse and National Trust), education (BU and BPC), manufacturing (Holt Engineering and RNLI) and retail (ASDA, TESCO, Co-op, etc).
The jobs in highest demand within the top 3 occupation groups in Dorset were:
- Professional: nurses, programmers, and teachers.
- Associate professionals: HR, Engineering, and IT Support.
- Elementary: Kitchen and catering staff, cleaners, storage workers.
New jobs were advertised at Bournemouth Airport, new food outlets and hotels locally.
Employment down, unemployment rates exceeding national for the first time on record
Despite the strong labour demand and in contrast to national movements, both employment and unemployment worsened in 2021 in Dorset.
Employment fell to 76.2%, but rates remained favourable compared to the national reference.
Unemployment however doubled, reaching 4.9% and exceeding national rates for the first time on record. with 8,900 more people unemployed than pre-pandemic.
The number of economically inactive people reached 88,200, with only 14,400 of them wanting a job – a 7% decline in Dorset, compared to 2% decline nationally.
Unemployment related benefits saw a month-on-month drop from a peak back in March 2021. There were circa 13,120 unemployment support claimants in Dorset in June 2022, among them 1,840 young people (18-24).
Future Career Corner: Remote & Hybrid
With growing staff shortages across industries, demand for remote and hybrid working is currently one of the most prominent trends. The number of people working from home in the first quarter of 2022 more than doubled (109%é) from pre-pandemic - now 30% of workers in the South West work from home and more than three-quarters of employers now offer hybrid working.
New research from Zoom & Indeed also revealed that Bournemouth ranks 14th among the UK’s top 25 hiring hotspots for remote workers.
Read 2022 Quarter 2 Report