The latest labour market and economic indicators show switching the entire economy on over the summer created a unique spike in labour demand with an unseen peak in vacancies and the employment indicators holding up well.
As businesses are trying to fill their increased demand from the same talent pool, the narrative has changed from a peak in unemployment, feared at the start of the pandemic to now widely reported labour shortages and a job seekers market.
In this update, we focus on analysing these trends and the possible effects from the furlough scheme closure.
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Read full Dorset Labour Market & Skills Insights - Quarter 3 Report
Use the dashboard to explore the latest labour market developments. Should be read with the LMI during COVID-19 guidance.
In the Spotlight: Labour shortages, the economy and the end of furlough
Mira Koseva, Dorset LEP Skills Analyst, presents the main report findings on labour shortages in Dorset.
ONS reports the highest vacancies on record, and Dorset follows the national trend in a spike in demand adding to existing recruitment difficulties.
Both posting intensity and duration are elevated among the most in demand jobs in Dorset.
Whilst supply challenges have been attributed to a 100,000 shortage of HGV drivers, wide-ranging labour shortages are emerging, and some of them with far-reaching economic aftershocks.
We analyse the complex puzzle of contributing factors, including pandemic and Brexit developments accelerating existing trends and discuss how furlough and out-of-work benefits relate to shortages and how much these have to do with job quality. Calling for a “skills ecosystem” approach, we propose looking at both the supply and demand side and focusing on training and investment in technology, research and innovation to address skills shortages.
We also offer support from Dorset Gateway’s Back to Business programme and some top recruitment tips by local expert Helen Stacey.
Chart of the Quarter: The end of the furlough scheme
As the Job Retention Scheme ended in September we feature its rise and fall in Dorset as chart of the quarter and reflect on the scheme’s swift action to protect jobs and ease the financial burden for businesses. Clearly the scheme has prevented catastrophic rises in unemployment - in Dorset close to a half (44%, n=137,100) of all eligible jobs were furloughed at some point over the scheme’s 18-month term.
Over the months leading to its end in September, the number of furloughed jobs fell exponentially to 13,200 (4%) in Dorset.
These marks a 78% decline (45,500 fewer jobs furloughed) in August from this year’s peak in February and 88% decline (94,300 fewer jobs) from their highest levels in July of last year.
Amidst these positive developments, there is still a risk of increase in unemployment, yet reports are optimistic suggesting no significant increase in claimants has been noted over the first weeks of October.
Vacancies & Opportunities in Dorset: Record growth
In Quarter 3 vacancies in Dorset reached highs not seen since 2013. There were 22,804 vacancies – a 35% increase on pre-pandemic (January to March 2020) level, over 60% up on same period last year and 40% up on 2019.
Demand grew on pre-pandemic levels across all industries
Quarter 3 demand grew across all industries In Dorset above their January to March 2020 pre-pandemic levels. Demand grew most notably by 138% in Information and Communication and was 117% up in Tourism and Hospitality.
Top employers and jobs
Whilst the employers topping the chart have not seen a significant reshuffle (NHS, J.P.Morgan, the Councils, Bournemouth University and residential care firms), hospitality and catering employers are the notable exception with exponential growth in their recruitment volumes (over 200% growth).
Nurses, software developers and carers remain most in demand in Dorset, with office administrators, chefs, food service team members and customer service representatives are back in demand.
When compared to 2019, demand in 2021 saw the highest growth in financial professions (58%é), community & social services roles (44%é ) and business management & operations (36%é).
Education, Experience and Skills
Engineering, Nursing Science and Business Administration were the subject areas most frequently quoted by employers. Baseline communication, organisational, detail-orientation and planning skills topped the skills charts. Over half (57%) of the advertised jobs in 2021 required less than 2 years of experience and half of the jobs required GCSE’s and A Levels as a minimum.
Employment holding up, unemployment rising, return to work accelerating
Return to work has accelerated with out-of-work benefit claimants seeing a month-on-month drop from a peak back in March. There were 7,535 fewer claimants and 1,805 less young people on unemployment support at the end of September, marking a 30% overall decline and a more pronounced 40% decline in youth unemployment since March.
At the end of June 2021, employment rate was 77% (74.3% nationally) marking a small 0.2 percentage points increase on the quarter.
Unemployment rate was up to 4.3% (5.1% nationally), marking a small 0.1 percentage points decline on the quarter.
Overall, an estimated 6,500 fewer people were in employment and 5,000 more were unemployed in Dorset in June 2021 compared to a year earlier.
Both younger and older workers more likely to be unemployed
Between July 2020 and June 2021 in Dorset, 60% of the rise in unemployment from a year earlier was accounted for by young people aged 16-24, and 40% by those aged 50-64.
There was an increased number of people aged 65+ in employment.
Declines in employment are occupation and sector specific
Occupations with largest pandemic disruption to employment were Associate Professional &Technical, Skilled Trades, and Elementary & Management occupations, while employment increased significantly in Professional occupations.
The sectors with largest declines in employment were Public Administration, Education & Health; Distribution, Hotels & Restaurants; and Construction.
Self-employment cautiously back on growing trajectory
In Dorset, 11,400 were in receipt of Self Employment Income Support grant in September - an increase of 3,100 on the previous month. While there were 3,100 fewer self-employed in June 2021 compared to a year earlier, a positive movement of 300 up was recorded on the quarter.
Increase in pay seen nationally not yet reflected in Dorset
Estimated growth in pay has not yet been reflected in local data, illustrating only a marginal growth in annual gross pay in 2020 and a decline in advertised average salary for job vacancies in 2021 in Dorset.
Future Career Corner: Green
As the Government unveiled its landmark Net Zero Strategy: Build Back Greener we dive deeper into green job opportunities in Dorset, exploring employers, salary, skills and educational requirements needed to grow green careers in Dorset.
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